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In this example, we will try to forecast sales for the next few years based on the following historical data. However, it is recommended to summarize your data to get more accurate predictions.

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In theory, your time series can miss up to 30% of data points or have several entries with the same date or time, and Excel will still do the forecast correctly. For example, you can supply weekly intervals with values on every Monday, monthly intervals with values on the 1st day of every month, etc. It is important that your time series have equal intervals between the data points.

Data values series - corresponding numeric values that will be predicted for future dates.

Time series - date or time entries that are observed sequentially at a regular interval like hourly, daily, monthly, yearly, etc.

In your Excel worksheet, enter two data series into adjacent columns: Basically, you only need to appropriately organize the source data, and Excel will do the rest. The Forecast Sheet feature introduced in Excel 2016 makes time series forecasting super-easy. Create an exponential forecast sheet automatically You can do such a forecast with your own formulas or have Excel create a forecast sheet for you automatically. It is available in Excel 2016, Excel 2019 and Excel for Office 365. This forecasting method is best suited for non-linear data models with seasonal or other recurring patterns.

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How to forecast in Excel using exponential smoothingĮxponential smoothing forecasting in Excel is based on the AAA version (additive error, additive trend and additive seasonality) of the Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) algorithm, which smoothes out minor deviations in past data trends by detecting seasonality patterns and confidence intervals. Linear forecast - predicting future values using linear regression.Exponential smoothing forecast - time series forecasting based on historical data with seasonal or other cycles.

Depending in your needs, you can choose one of the following methods: Microsoft Excel offers a few different forecasting tools including built-in features, functions, and graphs. So, you should always double check the results before making a decision. However, forecasting doesn't tell the future definitively, it only shows probabilities. This method is commonly used to make educated guesses on cash flows, plan budgets, anticipate future expenses or sales, and so on.

Formulas for exponential smoothing forecastingįorecasting is a special technique of making predictions for the future by using historical data as inputs and analyzing trends.

Exponential smoothing forecast in Excel.

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This tutorial will teach you how to forecast in Excel based on historical data and may help you save money on specialized forecasting software :) In statistics, there exist many different forecasting techniques and some of these techniques are already implemented in Excel. The tutorial shows how to do time series forecasting in Excel with the built-in Forecast Sheet feature and your own formulas.